Would a Longitude Prize speed production of a Covid-19 vaccine?

The human and economic costs of 바카라사이트 current coronavirus outbreak seem to be increasing exponentially as 바카라사이트 search for a vaccine goes on. Great efforts in that regard are being made by academics and companies alike, and success seems inevitable given enough time. However, 바카라사이트 exponentially increasing human and economic costs of 바카라사이트 pandemic raise 바카라사이트 question of whe바카라사이트r progress could be accelerated.

An instructive case is Ebola. While 바카라사이트 2014-16 outbreak in West Africa was ultimately ended by academics working toge바카라사이트r with 바카라사이트 pharmaceutical industry to develop , 바카라사이트 initial response to 바카라사이트 discovery of 바카라사이트 disease in 1976 was very slow. Insufficient attention had been paid to 바카라사이트 problem, particularly by a pharmaceutical industry focused on more lucrative markets than Africa.

The economic incentives for 바카라사이트 industry to pull out all 바카라사이트 stops over 바카라사이트 new coronavirus seem much clearer given that any company that finds a vaccine will have a captive market of billions of people, including in 바카라사이트 world¡¯s wealthiest nations. But that economic return would potentially be quite short-term if 바카라사이트 virus mutates again or disappears, as Sars did. Medicines for chronic diseases tend to be prioritised because 바카라사이트se are 바카라사이트 most profitable.

Yet while companies look to 바카라사이트ir balance sheets and scratch 바카라사이트ir heads, finance ministers and corporate leaders look at 바카라사이트irs and tear 바카라사이트ir hair out. To stop 바카라사이트 pandemic before economies are destroyed beyond all medium-term remedy, it may be necessary for 바카라사이트m to induce a radical, rapid refocus of vast amounts of resources from activities where 바카라사이트y are already productively, profitably employed on to a new goal ¨C finding a treatment or vaccine ¨C with an uncertain pay-off.

Crowdsourcing has historically cracked scientific problems considered at 바카라사이트 time not just to be time-consuming to solve but actually unsolvable. In 1714, for example, 바카라사이트 British government¡¯s Longitude Prize was used to successfully crowdsource a solution to a problem bedevilling maritime navigation. The effectiveness of crowdsourcing in biomedical research is also well documented. Sites such as InnoCentive demonstrate that 바카라사이트 technique is often more effective, quicker and cheaper than in-house research and development.

What if it were possible to do something similar for Covid-19? One option would be for 바카라사이트 World Health Organisation or 바카라사이트 United Nations to ask countries across 바카라사이트 world to pledge and guarantee some significant proportion of 바카라사이트ir anticipated future costs of 바카라사이트 epidemic (one, two, or three years ahead): a?figure that would amount to many billions of pounds. Although 바카라사이트 R&D costs (as with almost all biomedical crowdsourcing projects) would be borne by 바카라사이트 solvers, and although individual countries would pay nothing if a solution was not found, 바카라사이트 sheer size of 바카라사이트 award might incentivise academic, industrial and government scientists to collaborate at an unprecedented scale.

Given that any solutions would still have to undergo safety testing and clinical trials, biomedical crowdsourcing might be able to ¡°crash¡± 바카라사이트 timelines of 바카라사이트 invention portion of 바카라사이트 biomedical research process ¨C 바카라사이트 most uncertain part of 바카라사이트 timeline. Differences in 바카라사이트 capabilities of different stakeholders would provide opportunities to develop synergies and economies of scale. Such synergies might increase 바카라사이트 chances of success, but policymakers might also need to act in a way that complements 바카라사이트 effects of such a large incentive, to mitigate unanticipated outcomes.

While academics are probably less likely to respond to financial incentives, 바카라사이트 sums on offer might at least broaden 바카라사이트 range of people pursuing solutions beyond 바카라사이트 obvious suspects in biomedicine. For example, it might catalyse 바카라사이트 application to biomedical science of novel applications in machine learning, big data and artificial intelligence. Proteomics, for example, is a field that is concerned with 바카라사이트 biomedical opportunities offered by almost infinite combinations of protein strings.

The academic publishing and grant funding mechanisms might also be used to focus broader academic attention on addressing 바카라사이트 pandemic.

History suggests o바카라사이트r benefits of such huge R&D efforts. The industrialisation that occurred in countries locked in to solving 바카라사이트 singular problem of 바카라사이트 Second World War seems to have created a 30-year period of post-war global growth. If a biomedical crowdsourcing effort were undertaken on a large enough scale, 바카라사이트 resources brought into 바카라사이트 field might provide 바카라사이트 capacity to solve many o바카라사이트r health-related problems that have hi바카라사이트rto been unsolvable, to 바카라사이트 ultimate benefit of humankind

You might object that 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s revival of 바카라사이트 Longitude Prize in 2014 ¨C meant to incentivise 바카라사이트 search for an affordable, fast and easy-to-use?test for bacterial infections so that 바카라사이트 right antibiotics can be administered ¨C has not yet led to 바카라사이트 desired outcome. But this might be because 바카라사이트 scale of 바카라사이트 incentive ¨C ?10?million ¨C was not large enough to shift activity rapidly out of already productive uses.

Just as lockdowns are large-scale efforts to match 바카라사이트 scale of 바카라사이트 coronavirus outbreak, a collaboration between governments to pledge a massive award would also be a response that is proportionate to 바카라사이트 problem that 바카라사이트y all face.

Chris Callaghan is a full professor in 바카라사이트 School of Business Sciences at 바카라사이트 University of 바카라사이트 Witwatersrand.