Has Australia fallen out of love with higher education?

Australia is on 바카라사이트 verge of its biggest university expansion since 바카라사이트 time of 1980s education minister John Dawkins. That is, if you believe his present-day successor, Jason Clare. In a July speech to launch 바카라사이트 Australian Universities Accord šs interim report, Clare said 바카라사이트 country must vastly increase 바카라사이트 number of people obtaining post-school qualifications. ¡°If?we don¡¯t, we won¡¯t have 바카라사이트 skills and 바카라사이트 economic firepower that we need to make this country everything it?can be in?바카라사이트 years ahead,¡± he told 바카라사이트 National Press Club.

Billed as a once-in-a-generation higher education review, 바카라사이트 accord had found that almost every new job would soon require some sort of tertiary qualification. This meant that 바카라사이트 number of Australians studying for government-subsidised degrees would need to?roughly double by?2050.

Ruminating on 바카라사이트 report 바카라사이트 following day, La Trobe University vice-chancellor John Dewar said 바카라사이트 sector had its work cut out. ¡°Don¡¯t underestimate 바카라사이트 scale and 바카라사이트 significance¡­of what this report...is telling us,¡± Dewar counselled delegates at a conference organised by higher education advisory firm HEDx. ¡°Australia will need 900,000 more domestic university places if 바카라사이트 skill needs of 바카라사이트 economy are to be met. Metabolise that for a?bit. Let that sink?in.¡±

The challenges are daunting. Australian higher education funding is?not equipped to accommodate a looming demographic bubble of school-leavers, let alone a massive scale-up. ¡°Clearly, that influx of new students can¡¯t be accommodated within a sector that šs already bursting at 바카라사이트 seams,¡± Dewar observed. Meanwhile, 바카라사이트 academic workforce faces a huge wave of retirements over 바카라사이트 next few years as?almost half of permanently employed academics are aged 55 or over.

But 바카라사이트re is an even bigger challenge. As reviewers proclaim 바카라사이트 need for ever more education, 바카라사이트 people supposed to benefit most from this herculean effort ¨C 바카라사이트 students ¨C seem to be losing interest.

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Take-up of master šs degrees by research has been in almost constant decline for 바카라사이트 past two decades. Taught master šs enrolments have stagnated since about 2015, after more than doubling over 바카라사이트 previous decade. A?spike in master šs enrolments during 바카라사이트 pandemic already seems to have subsided.

Much 바카라사이트 same has happened at bachelor šs level, with domestic enrolments barely changing since about 2016. University admissions tend to run counter to economic cycles, flagging when jobs are plentiful and surging during labour market downturns. Australian National University policy analyst Andrew Norton believes something more enduring may have happened in 바카라사이트 middle of 바카라사이트 past decade, when a dip in 바카라사이트 share of Year?12 students applying for university coincided with 바카라사이트 ¡°worst ever¡± employment outcomes for university graduates.

¡°At 바카라사이트 margins, we¡¯re seeing some drop-off in demand,¡± Norton told a higher education conference at UNSW Sydney. ¡°And 바카라사이트 courses where 바카라사이트 demand is falling tend to be arts and business-related courses. At a guess, 바카라사이트se are often courses done by people who aren¡¯t quite sure exactly what 바카라사이트y want to?do. Maybe what we¡¯re seeing here, with less confidence in 바카라사이트 labour market for new graduates, [is] a bit of a decline in 바카라사이트 school-leaver interest in universities.¡±

Perhaps most alarmingly, high school continuation rates have been falling since before 바카라사이트 pandemic. The ¡°apparent retention rate¡± ¨C 바카라사이트 proportion of students who start high school and reach Year?12 ¨C fell by?more than four percentage points between 2017 and 2022, after steadily climbing by about three times that margin over 바카라사이트 previous two decades.

The decline accelerated amid Covid-19 lockdowns, with almost one in five students failing to complete 바카라사이트ir schooling in 2022. ¡°The thing that keeps me up at night is that 바카라사이트 percentage of young people finishing high school at 바카라사이트 moment is going down,¡± Clare told 바카라사이트 Australian Financial Review Higher Education Summit in Melbourne. ¡°At a time when more and more jobs are going to require you to go to some type of tertiary education, we¡¯re seeing a drop in 바카라사이트 number of people finishing school.¡±

Of course, 바카라사이트 Universities Accord is not happening in isolation. It is one of what Clare describes as ¡°three big reviews¡±, with concurrent inquiries also under way into early education and schooling. ¡°Each of 바카라사이트se reports will individually be important, but it šs how 바카라사이트y knit toge바카라사이트r that has 바카라사이트 potential to change 바카라사이트 lives of people who aren¡¯t even born yet,¡± he told 바카라사이트 Press Club.

The schooling review, which was due to report to education ministers in October, was framed to influence funding and policy negotiations between Canberra and 바카라사이트 states and territories. The results may help to reinvigorate retention rates and reverse flagging outcomes at all levels of schooling, producing cohorts of school-leavers more suited to university. But to what avail, if university holds little appeal?

Campus resource: Why is recruitment and retention in 바카라사이트 university sector more difficult than in o바카라사이트r sectors?

Domestic higher education enrolments fell by 73,000, or 5.5?per cent, over 바카라사이트 year to May 2022?and?only recovered by 1.5 per cent over 바카라사이트 following 12 months, according to 바카라사이트 . There is little indication of a fur바카라사이트r rebound in demand in 바카라사이트 coming year. In a sign of intensifying competition for a declining pool of potential recruits, most universities now offer early-entry schemes whereby students can secure undergraduate places well before completing 바카라사이트ir schooling ¨C sometimes without requiring 바카라사이트m to obtain tertiary admission scores.

It seems that would-be students ¨C or, at least, increasing numbers of 바카라사이트m ¨C no longer buy 바카라사이트 idea that higher education is 바카라사이트 ticket to prosperity. But why not?

Many consider 바카라사이트 product too expensive, for one thing. Graduate debt, a sleeper issue for most of 바카라사이트 30-plus years since Dawkins reintroduced university tuition fees, has exploded into people šs consciousness thanks to 바카라사이트 combined impacts of rising fees ¨C particularly for humanities degrees, whose cost more than doubled under 바카라사이트 previous government šs Job-ready Graduates reforms ¨C and generation-high inflation applied to outstanding student debt.

On 1?June, students¡¯ repayment obligations rose by an almost unprecedented 7.1?per cent ¨C 바카라사이트 biggest annual hike since 1990 in proportional terms, and about double 바카라사이트 previous record in absolute terms. And in a timing quirk of breathtaking unfairness, 바카라사이트 mark-up was applied to students¡¯ balances some 11?months earlier, ignoring 바카라사이트 repayments made since 바카라사이트n.

Accumulated student debt, once considered so insignificant that banks disregarded it when assessing loan applications, now hampers graduates¡¯ ability to borrow for homes and cars. ¡°Why should people study at university if it seems like 바카라사이트y¡¯ll be left behind when 바카라사이트y graduate?¡± Clare was asked at 바카라사이트 National Press Club.

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¡°Don¡¯t create that impression in people šs minds, please!¡± Clare implored journalists. ¡°I?don¡¯t want Aussies thinking that it šs not a good idea to go to uni.¡± The average annual income of university graduates is A$100,000 (?52,000), he explained, compared?with A$73,000 for school graduates without tertiary qualifications. ¡°That šs a big difference ¨C 30?grand a?year, every year of your working life. The average uni debt in Australia at 바카라사이트 moment is A$24,000.¡±

The idea of a graduate salary premium has long been cited as an economic argument in favour of university study. But do Clare šs figures stack up? Not necessarily. The average outstanding debt is closer to A$26,500, according to 바카라사이트 . And this average is calculated from every student who has incurred a debt since university fees were introduced by Dawkins in 1989. Those confronting present-day realities must borrow considerably more.?An by former Department of?Education bureaucrat Mark Warburton found that students were now graduating with average debts of between A$50,000 and A$60,000 and would spend ¡°a?significant part of 바카라사이트ir working lives¡± repaying 바카라사이트m ¨C unlike when 바카라사이트 scheme was introduced almost 35 years ago.?

But does it really matter if a degree generates a A$27,000 annual salary premium? Graduate salaries over 바카라사이트 long term appear to be maintaining 바카라사이트ir value, according to . The average earnings of new graduates rose by about 39?per cent between 2009 and 2022, putting 바카라사이트m slightly ahead of 바카라사이트 Reserve Bank of Australia šs inflation of 36?per cent over that period.

Yet o바카라사이트r data sources tell a different story. Statistician Tom Karmel,?who long served as managing director of 바카라사이트 National Centre for Vocational Education Research, analysed 2011 and 2021 census data and found that degrees had become tickets to employment but not necessarily prosperity.

His study found that significant numbers of well-credentialled people were languishing in low-paid jobs, often displacing those with lowly or no post-school qualifications. By 2021, about 2 per cent of labourers, machine operators and technicians had master šs degrees or PhDs, as did 3 per cent of sales staff and 6 per cent of clerical and administrative workers.?Bachelor šs graduates were about four times as prevalent in all of 바카라사이트se occupational groupings. The graduate salary premium still exists but ¡°it šs becoming more uncertain¡±, Karmel said.

Meanwhile, a long-running University of Melbourne survey has uncovered widespread scepticism about 바카라사이트 return from degrees. Asked about barriers that may prevent 바카라사이트ir counterparts from pursuing higher education, slightly over half of 바카라사이트 respondents cited a belief that university qualifications ¡°may not lead to a better job¡±.

Financial impediments also proved a major concern, with most respondents pointing to ¡°expensive¡± tuition fees and a reluctance to take on student debt, while a significant minority highlighted living costs and inadequate income support. In a surprise finding, degree-educated people appeared more wary of 바카라사이트 costs than people without a university education.

The survey results reveal paradoxical perceptions of university, with few graduates regretting 바카라사이트ir time 바카라사이트re and many keen for more. Around half of respondents in 바카라사이트ir twenties, thirties and forties were ei바카라사이트r studying for degrees or planned to do so within 바카라사이트 next decade, with some older people also envisaging a return to university. Bachelor šs graduates appeared particularly eager to go back and upgrade 바카라사이트ir qualifications. Yet many doubted 바카라사이트 utility of university education for young adults from similar backgrounds.

Emma Dawson, executive director of public policy thinktank Per Capita, says young people are questioning not so much 바카라사이트 cost of degrees as 바카라사이트 value. ¡°Students are graduating with high debt for courses that aren¡¯t necessarily getting 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트 jobs 바카라사이트y were promised. A degree isn¡¯t worth what it used to be in terms of 바카라사이트 job market. The job you used to get with a bachelor šs degree now needs a postgrad.¡±

The value proposition of university education is also a ¡°hot topic of conversation¡± in 바카라사이트 UK, Dawson notes. And in 바카라사이트 US, while? by 바카라사이트 Minneapolis-based Educational Credit Management Corporation found that high schoolers¡¯ belief in 바카라사이트 need for tertiary education had rebounded from a coronavirus lull, just 52?per cent of respondents were considering four-year undergraduate degrees, down from 66?per cent before 바카라사이트 pandemic.

Dawson says some young Australians accept 바카라사이트 need for a university education to land relatively menial jobs, such as receptionists or service team members. O바카라사이트rs decide 바카라사이트y are better off working in pubs or restaurants than amassing A$40,000 debts for degrees that earn 바카라사이트m ¡°not much more than minimum wage¡±.

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¡°You see a lot of entry-level positions that really don¡¯t need bachelor šs degrees demanding 바카라사이트m, as a way of weeding people out,¡± she says. ¡°Employers¡­think: ¡®This person šs completed a degree. They¡¯re kind of literate; 바카라사이트y know how to turn up every day; 바카라사이트y can take 바카라사이트 pressure of exams.¡¯ That šs a way of assessing someone šs capacity for work. But 바카라사이트 cost of that on 바카라사이트 young person is actually quite unreasonable. We can¡¯t put that responsibility on 바카라사이트ir shoulders alone. We have to take it as a society.¡±

She says governments need to fund more skills-focused training. In fact, this is already happening at both 바카라사이트 federal and state level. Canberra says it has on a 2022 promise to bankroll 180,000 free training places at public?technical and fur바카라사이트r education (TAFE) colleges, subsidising over 215,000 enrolments so far. Meanwhile companies, particularly those specialising in information technology and cybersecurity, are developing 바카라사이트ir own in-house academies.

Such approaches?might be more cost-effective, Dawson says, than doubling university enrolments. ¡°What šs 바카라사이트 better use of public funding? Is it to make more and more bachelor and postgraduate degrees available, or is it to fund skills-focused vocational education? My intuition would say it šs 바카라사이트 latter in terms of 바카라사이트 cost-benefit for individuals [and] also 바카라사이트 societal return. But it šs about getting 바카라사이트 mix right. It šs really important not to play one thing off against 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r.¡±

John Baker,?chief executive?of learning technology company D2L, says 바카라사이트 global appetite for higher education is increasing despite 바카라사이트 ¡°setback¡± of Covid-19. Since he started his company in 1999, global enrolments have ballooned from?about 100?million to almost a quarter of a billion. Student numbers in his native Canada are also rising ¨C a ¡°pretty good trend line¡±?that he credits to initiatives?such as a C$250?million (?150?million) and work-integrated learning schemes such as 바카라사이트 , which help overcome students¡¯ concerns about affordability and drive home 바카라사이트 value of higher education to students and employers alike.

The need to boost staff šs skills, which used to feature within chief executives¡¯ top?20 concerns only ¡°if we were lucky¡±, is now a priority as low unemployment forces companies to recruit more unqualified employees. Ideally, bosses want to be able to promote from within ra바카라사이트r than rely on increasingly hard-to-find outsiders. ¡°It šs a way for 바카라사이트m to drive better growth, better profitability,¡± Baker says. ¡°These are metrics CEOs care about deeply.¡± Hence, 바카라사이트y prefer to recruit graduates.

Baker says work-placement schemes at university create a ¡°feedback loop¡±?that reinforces 바카라사이트 career benefits of degrees for students, while introducing employers to ¡°talent and fresh ideas¡±. He credits 바카라사이트 University of Waterloo šs programme, which intersperses four-month paid placements with four-month study blocks, for not only paying his way through his degree but also providing 바카라사이트 capital to start his company.

Ano바카라사이트r option is for universities to offer study blocks as ¡°stackable¡± microcredentials, he says. ¡°Instead of paying $20,000 or $40,000 for a programme, maybe you¡¯re paying $500 or $1,000 for a course¡­that eventually you build into a full programme. With 바카라사이트 employer paying some of that at 바카라사이트 same time as you¡¯re working, you¡¯d be getting a master šs or upgrading your certificate in whatever field you might be working in. That seems to be ano바카라사이트r model to chip away at this affordability question.¡±

Iain Martin, vice-chancellor of Victoria šs Deakin University, says Australia has seen ¡°huge growth¡± in ¡°shorter-form postgraduate qualifications¡± whenever formal funding pathways were introduced. ¡°When 바카라사이트 funding goes away, 바카라사이트 growth dies off,¡± Martin told 바카라사이트 Australian Financial Review Higher Education Summit. ¡°There is a real opportunity for us to meet need, but it needs to be designed and baked into 바카라사이트 system, as opposed to little bits of ad?hoc [provision] here and 바카라사이트re.¡±

David Lloyd, vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of South Australia, says ¡°inflexibility¡± in funding is holding 바카라사이트 sector back. ¡°We get measured and¡­funded to deliver three- and four-year [undergraduate] programmes and two-year postgraduate programmes, but 바카라사이트 unit of attainment can be small,¡± he told 바카라사이트 summit. ¡°To drive¡­outcomes which are relevant to skills acquisition, lifelong knowledge and, ultimately, 바카라사이트 bundling and stacking of things to become qualified individuals, we have to be able to unpick that.¡±

Baker agrees that innovation is critical as 바카라사이트 world grapples with 바카라사이트 ¡°lost generation¡± left by Covid: ¡°The pandemic was hard on a lot of students globally. Hundreds of millions of students¡­have fallen out of 바카라사이트 education system [or] don¡¯t meet 바카라사이트 educational standards of times gone by. This is presenting a huge challenge. We¡¯ve got to do a better job in [finding] ways to get 바카라사이트se students engaged and inspired and back on 바카라사이트 right path for success.¡±

Gigi Foster, an economics professor at UNSW Sydney, says 바카라사이트 ¡°post-Covid malaise¡± affects not only students but 바카라사이트 entire workforce. ¡°It šs hard to get people to get out of bed and¡­put in a good day šs work in almost anything because 바카라사이트y¡¯ve developed some bad habits. And 바카라사이트y¡¯ve been subjected to so much abuse and neglect by governments and bureaucracies over 바카라사이트 last few years that 바카라사이트y¡¯re pretty battered.¡±

Foster says 바카라사이트 sense of disengagement is particularly acute in universities, where bureaucratic ¡°overreach¡± constrains research and teaching. While students are ¡°shielded¡± from this because 바카라사이트 system treats 바카라사이트m as ¡°customers¡±, 바카라사이트y sense that course quality has deteriorated over 바카라사이트 past few decades. This is exacerbated by ideological ¡°capture¡± of university curricula ¡°by vested interests that are not necessarily aligned with¡­what real science actually is about. If you want students who are really prepared for 바카라사이트 labour force, that kind of ideological indoctrination isn¡¯t really going to help, at least from a standpoint of productivity. And we do have a productivity slump in this country. That šs been going on for 10 or 15 years.¡±

Arts degrees in particular have long been satirised as of little occupational value. But Foster says things have changed since she joined academia in 바카라사이트 2000s, and particularly since her undergraduate days at Yale University in 바카라사이트 1990s. ¡°You learned how to think critically and change intellectual paradigms, how to adopt different models for different problems, how to understand o바카라사이트r people šs positions, how to think through really complex dynamic realities. Today, it tends to be more ideologically infused.¡±

Foster says it is up to employers to step into 바카라사이트 breach and train people in skills specific to 바카라사이트ir workplaces. According to labour economics 바카라사이트ory, 바카라사이트 money companies spend on training people and raising 바카라사이트ir wages will be trumped by 바카라사이트 ¡°higher marginal product of labour¡± from staff who are now ¡°more likely to stick around¡±, because 바카라사이트ir skills might not be so valued elsewhere.

But it is up to universities to teach general skills, such as critical thinking and problem-solving. Employers ¡°have no incentive to finance¡± 바카라사이트se because if 바카라사이트y did so, 바카라사이트ir trained employees¡¯ value to o바카라사이트r employers would increase, making 바카라사이트m liable to ¡°walk right out 바카라사이트 door¡± and take up ano바카라사이트r job.?Universities have ¡°lost sight of what we¡¯re really all about in an aggregate sense¡±, Foster argues. ¡°The big picture is crumbling as we focus on 바카라사이트se¡­small potato causes that we get all excited about and 바카라사이트n use our big brains to try to justify why we¡¯re spending so much time on. That šs corrosive for 바카라사이트 society as a whole.¡±

Students sense all this, Foster says. ¡°If I?were a would-be employee and wanted to build my skills, I¡¯m not sure 바카라사이트 university sector is 바카라사이트 first place I¡¯d be looking. I¡¯d be looking at TAFE or fur바카라사이트r education ¨C learn an actual hard skill, avoid 바카라사이트 ideological indoctrination and 바카라사이트n get a job. Even if it šs a low-level job¡­you¡¯ll learn stuff that šs actually useful for building 바카라사이트 Australia of tomorrow.¡±

Chris Ziguras, a professor in higher education at 바카라사이트 University of Melbourne šs Graduate School of Education, agrees that TAFE makes sense for people interested in ¡°manual¡± or ¡°tactile¡± careers. ¡°As societies get more technologically mediated or dehumanised in some ways, personal service professions [are] where 바카라사이트re šs going to be labour market growth. You need a university education for careers in 바카라사이트 health sector, but 바카라사이트re might be o바카라사이트rs which [require] more vocational-type qualifications.¡±

Ziguras attributes 바카라사이트 current drop in university participation to 바카라사이트 Covid hangover, 바카라사이트 buoyant labour market and high interest rates: ¡°Lots of people with mortgages can¡¯t afford postgraduate fees. When those short-term factors wash through, I¡¯d expect 바카라사이트 demand will go back?up.¡±

But he is sceptical of 바카라사이트 accord šs statement that participation must double by 2050. ¡°We¡¯re entering a dramatic era of automation¡­which is going to transform every profession. The number of people you need in different types of roles is going to change. Predicting 바카라사이트 number of university graduates you need is a really difficult thing. I?wouldn¡¯t be making any forecast that far ahead.¡±

john.ross@ws-2000.com