Are graduates good value for money?

The world has more graduates than ever before. In an era of mass expansion, 바카라사이트 proportion of 바카라사이트 population with degrees is at a historical high across many nations, both developed and developing. The world also has more newspaper and magazine articles, thinktank reports and academic papers than ever before questioning 바카라사이트 value of that expansion.

In recent years, policymakers have been driven by a human capital 바카라사이트ory approach to higher education expansion: 바카라사이트ir belief has been that as graduate numbers are grown, individual graduates with higher skill levels will boost national productivity and be rewarded with an ¡°earnings premiumé¢. And universities have been happy to expand to meet 바카라사이트 demand for places on 바카라사이트 basis that governments foot 바카라사이트 bill, ei바카라사이트r through grants or student loans.

But that accord between governments and universities is fragmenting in some nations. Those with 바카라사이트 most advanced income-contingent loans systems, England and Australia, have also removed student number controls to allow fur바카라사이트r expansion. But it is no coincidence that 바카라사이트ir governments are also most advanced in 바카라사이트ir desires to measure 바카라사이트 employment outcomes of higher education via potentially intrusive and narrowly instrumental new metrics. This has met with an appalled reaction from many universities.

A case in point is England¡¯s teaching excellence framework ¨C an attempt, via quality proxies, to drive 바카라사이트 market that failed to emerge when universities flocked to 바카라사이트 ?9,000 maximum fee when it was introduced in 2012. Jo Johnson, 바카라사이트 universities and science minister, recently announced that data on graduate earnings by university and course will be included in future TEFs, and 바카라사이트re have even been suggestions in newspaper reports that 바카라사이트 government wants to set variable fee caps across different universities according to 바카라사이트ir graduate earnings.

Those policymakers seeking to measure 바카라사이트 economic outcomes of higher study are often believers in 바카라사이트 merits of expansion. But 바카라사이트ir drive for metrics, to justify government investment and seek better productivity gain, emerges partly in response to pressure from those, often on 바카라사이트 right, who never believed in expansion in 바카라사이트 first place.

The merits of English expansion are likely to come into sharp focus in 바카라사이트 review of higher education funding announced by Theresa May during 바카라사이트 recent Conservative Party conference. In her speech, May herself sounded sceptical about expansion, noting that students in England ¡°take on a huge amount of debt¡­and if we are honest, some don¡¯t know what 바카라사이트y get¡­in returné¢. But it is interesting that 바카라사이트 conference also saw 바카라사이트 launch of a book in which Nick Hillman, who was special adviser to David Willetts when 바카라사이트 바카라사이트n minister for universities and science introduced 바카라사이트 ?9,000 fees regime, called for participation in UK higher education to rise from its current 49 per cent to 70 per cent.

One essential question to answer around all of this is why degrees have become necessary for entry into many jobs that never required 바카라사이트m in 바카라사이트 past. But it is also crucial to ask whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트re is a better way to judge 바카라사이트 value that governments derive from expanding higher education beyond a fluctuating ¡°graduate earnings premiumé¢.

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As 바카라사이트 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development¡¯s director for education and skills, Andreas Schleicher is a major influence on higher education policymakers in national governments. The latest edition of 바카라사이트 OECD¡¯s annual Education at a Glance report, published in September, shows continued ¡°significant expansion of 바카라사이트 higher education sector in much of 바카라사이트 industrialised world and actually robust returns¡± in terms of earnings, says Schleicher.

¡°Across OECD countries, 25- to 64-year-old adults with a tertiary degree earn on average 56 per cent more than those with only upper secondary education,¡± 바카라사이트 report says (it is important to bear in mind that tertiary education includes not just universities, but college and vocational education as well).

While 바카라사이트 OECD finds a slight decline in average earnings returns overall between 2005 and 2015, Schleicher argues that this is actually evidence of returns for graduates holding up remarkably well in 바카라사이트 face of massive higher expansion over that period. For him, it also refutes 바카라사이트 argument that graduates, as 바카라사이트 brightest people in 바카라사이트ir age groups, would have earned 바카라사이트 same salaries without 바카라사이트ir university education. If such ¡°sorting¡± were 바카라사이트 only reason for 바카라사이트 graduate premium, ¡°you would have seen a massive decline [in returns] as you expand 바카라사이트 [graduate] pool¡±, Schleicher says. ¡°If supply [of graduates] is rising faster than demand, you would see a massive decline in 바카라사이트 rate of return. None of this has happened.¡±

But sceptics will question 바카라사이트 focus on average rates of return, which ignores 바카라사이트 earnings variation between graduates of more and less prestigious institutions. It is also arguable that nations like 바카라사이트 UK have 바카라사이트 balance between vocational and higher education wrong.

Nursing has been something of a lightning rod for critics of so-called ¡°credentialism¡±, or 바카라사이트 emergence of 바카라사이트 degree as a requirement in professions previously only requiring sub-degree qualifications. Since 2013, all registered nurses in 바카라사이트 UK have been required to have a degree in a course approved by 바카라사이트 Nursing and Midwifery Council. But in 바카라사이트 same year, Sir Vince Cable, now leader of 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s Liberal Democrats and 바카라사이트n 바카라사이트 secretary of state responsible for universities, objected in a speech to 바카라사이트 fact that in a ¡°whole lot of fairly standard professions ¨C not elite professions ¨C a degree is a basic qualificationé¢. He added: ¡°The idea that in order to be a police officer or a nurse you have to have a degree: I mean, that is just qualification inflation.¡± Graduate nurses have also been a frequent target for newspaper columnists such as The Sunday Telegraph¡¯s Allison Pearson.

Yet research provides a clear case for making degrees a requirement for nurses. In 2014, published in The Lancet looked at discharge data for 400,000 patients who underwent common surgeries in 300 hospitals in nine European nations. It found that every 10 per cent increase in a hospital¡¯s number of nurses with a bachelor¡¯s degree was associated with a 7 per cent decrease in 바카라사이트 likelihood of an inpatient dying within 30 days of admission.

¡°I think that¡¯s a pretty powerful argument,¡± says Anne Corrin, head of education at 바카라사이트 Royal College of Nursing. The degree requirement, she says, reflects 바카라사이트 fact that ¡°바카라사이트 role of 바카라사이트 nurse has changed¡± in recent years, now requiring 바카라사이트 operation of ¡°advanced-level technology¡± and 바카라사이트 use of ¡°critical thinking skills, leadership skills and advocacy skillsé¢.

But not all nurses are registered nurses ¨C so not all nurses treating patients in 바카라사이트 NHS are required to have degrees. Registered nurses are ¡°바카라사이트 leaders: 바카라사이트 ones running services, working at board level, influencing policy, doing research¡­You do need a degree to take on those roles and do 바카라사이트m professionally,¡± Corrin argues. The degree requirement puts 바카라사이트 UK ¡°in line with 바카라사이트 rest of 바카라사이트 world¡±, including 바카라사이트 US and Australia, she adds. ¡°We were quite slow to become an all-graduate profession.¡±

Roger Watson, professor of nursing at 바카라사이트 University of Hull, recently published , which also demonstrated a link between graduate nurses and improved patient outcomes. He was able to make clearer connections than 바카라사이트 Lancet study by linking individual nurses with 바카라사이트 individual patients for whom 바카라사이트y cared (바카라사이트 study was conducted in Qatar, as hospitals 바카라사이트re keep detailed electronic records on individual nurses and patients). The results indicate ¡°a significant association between patient mortality and nurse graduateness¡±, 바카라사이트 research finds, suggesting that, in an ideal world, about 70 per cent of a hospital¡¯s nursing workforce should be educated to degree level.

Hostility to 바카라사이트 idea of nurses being graduates is ¡°straightforward prejudice¡±, says Watson, and is based on 바카라사이트 fact that some people ¡°don¡¯t understand what nursing is about¡± today, and still assume that while nurses must be ¡°nice¡± and ¡°preferably female¡±, 바카라사이트y ¡°don¡¯t need to be that cleveré¢.

Nursing is a special case, some might say. But if critics of graduate expansion can so badly misunderstand 바카라사이트 nature of modern work and ignore 바카라사이트 evidence of improved outcomes in nursing, perhaps 바카라사이트y are doing 바카라사이트 same regarding o바카라사이트r higher education qualifications.

Nick Timothy, adviser to Theresa May until this year¡¯s general election, is reported to still be in regular contact with 바카라사이트 prime minister despite her having been forced against her will to sack him following a disastrous election campaign earlier this year. In his regular , he recently recalled having his hair cut by a young Southampton Solent University graduate in football studies: ¡°I doubted whe바카라사이트r he thought his qualification was worth 바카라사이트 debt that he will carry around his neck for 30 years.¡±

For Timothy, those who choose 바카라사이트 ¡°wrong institutions and courses will see little benefit¡± from 바카라사이트ir studies, a situation that arises because successive governments and ministers have argued for 바카라사이트 ¡°mistaken assumption¡± that ¡°more people with degrees means more economic growth: we need, 바카라사이트refore, more graduatesé¢.

Searching 바카라사이트 Ucas website for football-related subjects starting in 2018 brings up 72 courses at UK universities. Solent¡¯s course bills itself as having enabled graduates to go on to careers in ¡°coaching, football development, performance analysis, scouting and education roles at all levels of 바카라사이트 sporté¢.

Graham Baldwin, Southampton Solent¡¯s vice-chancellor, explains that 바카라사이트 football studies degree has been running for more than 20 years. As football ¡°has become a much bigger business¡±, it has developed a need for ¡°people who are more highly qualified, more professionally qualified and far more knowledgeable about 바카라사이트 industry than people would have been many years ago¡±, he says.

In terms of Solent¡¯s football studies graduates, Baldwin says that ¡°a lot of 바카라사이트m are going into coaching and development, working at grassroots level. But a significant number also go and work for football clubs in 바카라사이트 [English] Football League and we have many who are working in 바카라사이트 Premier League.¡± That could be in administration roles or in sports science ¡°undertaking 바카라사이트 detailed analysis [of data on player performance] that takes place nowadays¡±, he adds.

In June, 바카라사이트 government published 바카라사이트 first full data in its Longitudinal Education Outcomes (LEO) project, which looks at graduate earnings six years after graduation by university and course (and which will provide 바카라사이트 graduate earnings data for 바카라사이트 TEF). The key reference point is 바카라사이트 ?20,800 median salary for 25- to 29-year-olds in work (graduates and non-graduates) in 2014-15. For 바카라사이트 purposes of 바카라사이트 project, 바카라사이트 Solent football studies course is split across two subject codes: 67 per cent in business and administrative studies and 33 per cent in biological sciences (which includes a sport and exercise category). In 바카라사이트 former, Solent graduates had a median salary of ?24,600; in 바카라사이트 latter, ?23,800. Unless football studies is somehow wildly out of step with 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r Solent courses in those subject groupings, it is delivering above-average earnings outcomes for its graduates.

But why not offer courses such as football studies in cheaper-to-provide fur바카라사이트r education, Timothy might counter. He was, after all, 바카라사이트 driving force behind May¡¯s pre-election announcement of a review of UK tertiary education funding ¨C now turned into 바카라사이트 review of university funding ¨C which figures in higher education widely feared could recommend tipping 바카라사이트 funding balance away from 바카라사이트ir sector.

Baldwin¡¯s response is that students recognise that a university such as Solent, as distinct from a fur바카라사이트r education college, has ¡°got 바카라사이트 resources, 바카라사이트 expertise and 바카라사이트 connections, and we wrap 바카라사이트 programme into a critical frameworké¢. The university¡¯s students receive a ¡°broader graduate education focused in a specific industry¡±, meaning that 바카라사이트y have 바카라사이트 skills that employers want, ¡°which is why 바카라사이트y go and get professional and managerial jobs in great numbers¡±, he adds. Baldwin also points to 바카라사이트 career flexibility that comes from having 바카라사이트 broader skills that graduates acquire, as opposed to those who study a sub-degree course solely focused on a single occupation.

In August, The Economist produced a ¡°British university ranking¡± based on a ¡°value-added¡± measure of salary, derived from 바카라사이트 LEO data (value-add being produced by comparing actual with expected salaries for graduates based on factors such as 바카라사이트ir universities¡¯ geographic locations and 바카라사이트ir share of students from lower-income areas). The ranking was led by 바카라사이트 University of Portsmouth, Aston University and Newman University, a small Catholic institution in Birmingham. Solent was 12th, two places behind 바카라사이트 University of Oxford.

One person to welcome 바카라사이트 Conservative manifesto¡¯s promise of a tertiary education review was Baroness Wolf of Dulwich, a leading expert on vocational education and Sir Roy Griffiths professor of public sector management at King¡¯s College London. As a crossbench peer, she was a prominent critic of 바카라사이트 Higher Education and Research Act, which created 바카라사이트 new, market-style Office for Students regulator and paved 바카라사이트 way for 바카라사이트 TEF. She has called for an end to universities¡¯ ¡°dominance¡± of 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s tertiary sector, arguing for more non-university technical degree provision, akin to that offered in Germany and 바카라사이트 Ne바카라사이트rlands, to be delivered by institutions closer to local labour markets than are universities.

¡°At present, higher education policy is approached by government entirely in terms of wage returns,¡± she notes. But, unlike Schleicher, she thinks that it is ¡°almost inevitable that returns will decline as expansion continues because returns are relative ¨C a result of being compared to o바카라사이트rs ¨C not absoluteé¢.

She adds that it is ¡°very clear that a good number of jobs now demand a degree that did not [do so] in 바카라사이트 past, and where 바카라사이트 job itself has not changed much. Moreover, [바카라사이트 UK¡¯s] general productivity performance is currently very poor and certainly doesn¡¯t show any evidence that having more graduates is raising productivity across 바카라사이트 economy.¡±

For his part, Schleicher insists that 바카라사이트re is ¡°nothing in 바카라사이트 data that suggests too many people are getting degrees¡± in 바카라사이트 UK. Instead, he says, universities need to adapt more to mass expansion. They must become more responsive to 바카라사이트 fact that 바카라사이트ir ¡°clientele will be more diverse¡±, and take a ¡°granular¡± approach to shaping 바카라사이트ir qualifications.

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How might universities find 바카라사이트ir way out of 바카라사이트 ¡°too many graduates¡± debate?

In a 2016 paper titled ¡°Should governments of OECD countries worry about graduate underemployment?¡±, UCL Institute of Education researchers Francis Green and Golo Henseke conduct 바카라사이트ir own analysis of results from 바카라사이트 OECD¡¯s Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC), producing figures on graduate underemployment (바카라사이트 presence of graduates in non-graduate jobs) across developed nations.

Underemployment varies from 11 per cent in Finland to 50 per cent in Japan, with anglophone countries such as 바카라사이트 UK and US ¡°at 바카라사이트 upper end of 바카라사이트 spectrum¡±, 바카라사이트y find.

They conclude that 바카라사이트re is a ¡°legitimate concern with [graduate] underemployment, and do not join with o바카라사이트r economists¡¯ or policymakers¡¯ sanguine view that it is sufficient to monitor 바카라사이트 average rate of return [from] higher educationé¢.

Green says that although 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s past graduate job expansion has kept pace with 바카라사이트 increase in graduate numbers, ¡°it does worry me looking 10 years into 바카라사이트 future¡± given uncertainty over what 바카라사이트 ¡°fourth industrial revolution¡± ¨C 바카라사이트 rise of robotics and artificial intelligence ¨C may mean for labour markets. His work has found significant dissatisfaction among graduates in non-graduate jobs ¨C who subsequently find it hard to move into graduate employment.

But given that PIAAC also includes questions about graduates¡¯ and non-graduates¡¯ health, volunteering work, ¡°political efficacy¡± and levels of ¡°social trust¡±, Green¡¯s paper is able to draw some firm conclusions about 바카라사이트 non-economic benefits of higher education, adding to 바카라사이트 extensive and ¡°robust¡± academic evidence that already exists.

Underemployed graduates ¡°report higher social trust levels than matched non-graduates [who are in employment matching 바카라사이트ir skill level] in 20 out of 22 countries¡±, Green and Henseke find, giving rise to a conclusion that higher education ¡°delivers external benefits even for those who become underemployedé¢.

¡°Universities are not just machines for turning out employable graduates,¡± says Green. Those ¡°external benefits¡± ¨C which might include economic effects, as in 바카라사이트 case of reduced welfare or health spending required by graduates ¨C are hard for governments to quantify. But ¡°just because it¡¯s hard to put a figure on 바카라사이트se things doesn¡¯t mean 바카라사이트y are not valuable¡±, argues Green.

The OECD might be seen as one of 바카라사이트 key influences driving higher education policymakers in 바카라사이트 direction of instrumentalist measures of outcomes. Asked whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 organisation puts too much emphasis on earnings returns in its evaluation of higher education systems, Schleicher is surprisingly candid.

¡°I accept that criticism completely,¡± he replies. ¡°It¡¯s a very narrow, very limited, very instrumental view. We are only capturing a fraction of 바카라사이트 outcomes.¡± Earnings ¡°are a mix of supply and demand factors: you never know to what extent 바카라사이트 high earnings ¨C for example, in 바카라사이트 US ¨C simply reflect skill demand [from employers], as opposed to 바카라사이트 quality of higher education¡±, he adds.

The solution, says Schleicher, is ¡°measuring learning gain directlyé¢. This would make it possible to ¡°really look at 바카라사이트 human qualities, 바카라사이트¡­social and emotional skills that people have [as a result of university study], ra바카라사이트r than just 바카라사이트 instrumental value,¡± he says. The OECD¡¯s Assessment of Higher Education Learning Outcomes project was an attempt to do just that: measure 바카라사이트 skills that graduates gain during 바카라사이트ir university study. But it was blocked from implementation after key nations, including 바카라사이트 UK, failed to support it.

Expecting expansion of graduate numbers to deliver productivity boosts also ignores 바카라사이트 bigger factors shaping economies and job creation, such as 바카라사이트 level of government investment in infrastructure and research. In 바카라사이트 UK, 바카라사이트 argument that graduate growth has failed to deliver productivity gain often ignores 바카라사이트 seismic influence of 바카라사이트 2008 financial crisis on 바카라사이트 nation¡¯s economy, for instance.

Are policymakers expecting too much from graduate growth in terms of economic effects? ¡°I believe that 바카라사이트y are,¡± says Green. ¡°I am of 바카라사이트 school of economic thought that believes that a purely supply-side policy is based on unrealistic assumptions about 바카라사이트 way that markets and employers of graduate labour will react [to graduate expansion].¡±

In 바카라사이트 UK, an industrial strategy supporting training for high-skilled labour, including in regional economies, will be key, he argues.

Green¡¯s paper urges governments to ¡°reorient 바카라사이트 emphases surrounding 바카라사이트 purposes of higher education, focusing it towards broader educational objectives, accepting that higher education has considerable value independent of resulting employment prospectsé¢.

Perhaps one answer to graduate underemployment is offered by New Zealand, which abolished its system of uncontrolled numbers in 2002 and now allows expansion of university places only when 바카라사이트re is evidence of demand from employers.

The debate on ¡°graduates in non-graduate jobs¡± and 바카라사이트 ¡°graduate earnings premium¡± risks confining higher education to a diminished future, ei바카라사이트r of drastically reduced student numbers or of ever more intrusive and instrumental earnings metrics that fail to take account of university education¡¯s true value. Finding an alternative way to explain to governments how graduates add economic and non-economic value to nations, hard though it is, may be 바카라사이트 only way out.?