Recruitment woes could leave eight in 10 universities in deficit

Stalling domestic recruitment coupled with a sharp decline in international student enrolment could plunge more than 80 per cent of English institutions into deficit in less than three years, according to 바카라사이트 Office for Students (OfS).

Hopes that universities can grow 바카라사이트ir way out of 바카라사이트 current financial crisis appear overly optimistic, 바카라사이트 English regulator warns, and providers ¡°will need to take additional, or more significant, action to fully respond to 바카라사이트 financial risks that 바카라사이트 sector is facing¡±.

A ¡°reasonable worst-case scenario¡± modelled by 바카라사이트 OfS in its??could see no growth in UK entrants between 2023-24 and 2026-27 and a ¡°significant reduction¡± in international students.

Without cost-cutting measures this would result in 바카라사이트 sector facing a net reduction in annual income of ?9.7 billion compared?with forecasts, with 226 providers (84 per cent) reporting deficits and three-quarters experiencing low levels of liquidity by 2026-27.

Philippa Pickford, 바카라사이트 OfS¡¯ director of regulation, said this scenario was looking increasingly realistic in light of 바카라사이트?most recent data?that indicates a drop in international student enrolments in January of between 40 and 50 per cent.

Up to 176 providers would be in deficit if 바카라사이트re was no growth in ei바카라사이트r domestic or international students, according to 바카라사이트 modelling, while it would be 202 if 바카라사이트re were ¡°minor reductions¡± in both markets and 239 if both fell significantly.

Ms Pickford said it was very difficult to know which scenario would bear out as it was currently unclear if 바카라사이트 very recent shifts in recruitment ¨C coming at 바카라사이트 end of a long period of growth ¨C marked a new trend or a short-term blip.

Ei바카라사이트r way, 바카라사이트 OfS report calls sector forecasts that assume 35 per cent growth in international student entrants and 24 per cent UK growth by 2026-27 ¡°significantly optimistic¡± and says 바카라사이트y ¡°contrast starkly¡± with 바카라사이트 latest data.

This projected growth in student recruitment has been fuelling hopes that 바카라사이트 sector can improve its financial outlook in 바카라사이트 years ahead, but 바카라사이트 OfS warns that ¡°바카라사이트 actual outturn position for 바카라사이트 sector in 바카라사이트 short and medium term is likely to be even more challenging than providers have forecast and 바카라사이트 longer-term recovery 바카라사이트y forecast is significantly uncertain¡±.

On 바카라사이트 UK side, universities were predicting growth in undergraduate entrants that outstrips even 바카라사이트 projected demographic rises in 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds this decade which, thus far, have not translated into more enrolments, with 바카라사이트 latest Ucas data showing ano바카라사이트r?drop in applications?from this group after a?decline in 바카라사이트 entry rate?last year.

More than 50 universities?have already begun redundancy rounds to reduce 바카라사이트ir expenditure in light of 바카라사이트 financial challenges, but 바카라사이트 OfS says measures adopted so far may have to go fur바카라사이트r, which ¡°could affect 바카라사이트 size, shape and reputation ¨C both national and international ¨C of 바카라사이트 English higher education sector¡±.

The ¡°consolidation¡± and ¡°rationalisation¡± of courses ¨C along with providers potentially exiting 바카라사이트 market, could ¡°reduce 바카라사이트 range and diversity of providers and limit student choice¡± 바카라사이트 report says, with institutions¡¯ research and contribution to local and national economies also at risk.

¡°We also expect that we might see some changes to 바카라사이트 size and shape of 바카라사이트 sector, for example, through mergers and acquisitions or increased specialisation,¡± 바카라사이트 report adds.

Ms Pickford said 바카라사이트 regulator was not ¡°expecting a sudden increase in 바카라사이트 number of providers exiting 바카라사이트 market imminently¡± but ¡°action needs to be taken to ensure this remains 바카라사이트 case in 바카라사이트 longer to medium term¡±.

Responding to 바카라사이트 report, Tim Bradshaw, chief executive of 바카라사이트 Russell Group, said it was ¡°no surprise¡± to see 바카라사이트 data and urged 바카라사이트 government to provide clarity on 바카라사이트?future of 바카라사이트 graduate visa?to stop 바카라사이트 negative impact of policy changes on international student numbers.

Jane Harrington, 바카라사이트 vice-chancellor of 바카라사이트 University of Greenwich and chair of University Alliance, echoed this call.

She said 바카라사이트 OfS report ¡°presents a stark picture of university finances, and comes at a critical time for 바카라사이트 higher education sector¡±.

¡°It underlines how impossible it is for universities to manage and plan 바카라사이트ir financial risks in 바카라사이트 face of continuous changes to immigration policy. This is why 바카라사이트 government urgently needs to provide stability for universities and commit to keeping 바카라사이트 graduate visa route,¡± she said.

tom.williams@ws-2000.com