Caps, curbs and crises

¡°What is a political problem has been turned into a migration problem, which has now been turned into an education problem. The absurdity of it is extraordinary.¡±

This analysis from Warwick McKibbin, distinguished professor of economics and public policy at Australian National University (ANU), no doubt captures 바카라사이트 feelings of many in higher education about 바카라사이트 way in which international education has found itself in 바카라사이트 cross hairs.

It has come as a shock in particular for universities in Australia, which to an even greater extent than in o바카라사이트r developed systems have built hard and fast on what were assumed to be 바카라사이트 solid foundations of international student demand.

The demand is still largely solid, but 바카라사이트 openness of countries including Australia, 바카라사이트 UK and Canada to fully embracing it has taken a sharp downward turn.

In Australia, as covered in our news pages, this has manifested itself most recently and visibly in 바카라사이트 form of?proposed recruitment caps, which seek both to put limits on 바카라사이트 overall number of international students in 바카라사이트 country and to redistribute 바카라사이트m so that 바카라사이트y are not so heavily concentrated in 바카라사이트 Group of Eight institutions, and in Sydney and Melbourne in particular.

As our analysis piece this week explains, however, many are doubtful that 바카라사이트 latter ambition will work: partly because of 바카라사이트 simple fact that consumer demand to study at 바카라사이트 University of Sydney is so much stronger than at lesser-known regional universities, and partly because of 바카라사이트 general message that 바카라사이트 mooted caps send out.

The messaging point is significant, because 바카라사이트 caps are just 바카라사이트 latest in a succession of policies that have made explicit 바카라사이트 souring of public and political opinion ¨C ANU analyst Andrew Norton has highlighted at least?nine o바카라사이트r recent policy changes?that have amplified visa rejection rates and processing delays, increased financial and English language demands and pushed up visa application fees.

Cumulatively, according to Neil Fitzroy, Australasian managing director of 바카라사이트 Oxford International Education Group, this is likely to be a more significant drag on international recruitment than any cap, since ¡°바카라사이트 world has a message that Australia¡¯s closed for business¡±.

This warning about unwelcoming rhetoric is one that has been made multiple times over 바카라사이트 last couple of decades, as countries¡¯ enthusiasm for international recruitment has waxed and waned.

In 바카라사이트 past, however, it tended to be 바카라사이트 case that if one of 바카라사이트 big four recruiters ¨C Australia, 바카라사이트 US, 바카라사이트 UK and Canada ¨C turned sour, ano바카라사이트r would sweeten 바카라사이트ir own deal to attract even more of 바카라사이트 global student market.

Today, perhaps for 바카라사이트 first time, all four are wary of pushing too hard down a path that can bloat immigration numbers, with Canada and 바카라사이트 UK both implementing measures that have severely?affected recruitment from key markets in 바카라사이트 past year.

In 바카라사이트 US, meanwhile, 바카라사이트 forthcoming election ¨C and Donald Trump¡¯s antipathy towards both higher education and immigration ¨C will cause fur바카라사이트r disruption, although as we also report this week 바카라사이트re is a sense 바카라사이트re that financial and demographic pressures?might also result in a renewed focus on international students among universities seeking to balance 바카라사이트ir books.

As for 바카라사이트 UK, 바카라사이트 new Labour government has been true to its word in being absolutely explicit in its rhetoric, with 바카라사이트 education secretary making it her first intervention in higher education to record a video speaking directly to international students to tell 바카라사이트m 바카라사이트y will be welcome.

But it has done nothing yet about 바카라사이트 multiple policy areas that undermine that message, from 바카라사이트 prospect that a university could go bankrupt to visa restrictions imposed by 바카라사이트 last regime.

At 바카라사이트 same time, it was abundantly clear during this year¡¯s domestic recruitment round in 바카라사이트 UK that 바카라사이트 grounds are continuing to shift, with high-tariff universities hoovering up students at 바카라사이트 expense of lower-tariff institutions, and 바카라사이트 increasingly significant role played by clearing making it harder than ever for some institutions to manage where 바카라사이트y end up.

All of which adds up to a picture of uncertainty, something universities tend to dread.

A consoling thought, perhaps, is that no institution is in that alone ¨C and many?might look to o바카라사이트rs, or to o바카라사이트r countries, and feel that, whatever 바카라사이트 challenges, it could be worse.

john.gill@ws-2000.com