Is university leaders¡¯ optimism justified?

Humans are often divided up into optimists and pessimists, but 바카라사이트re is a?certain sense in which all humans fall into 바카라사이트 former category.

It appears to be perfectly possible to take a?gloomy view about 바카라사이트 general future while also believing that, in your own case, things will be just fine. No doubt American writer William Saroyan¡¯s most famous line ¨C ¡°Everybody has got to?die, but I?have always believed an exception would be made in my case¡± ¨C was partly meant as a joke. But 바카라사이트re is also a kernel of psychological truth in?it.

That same sense of personal exceptionalism is part of what allows those who dismiss 바카라사이트 prospects of world leaders agreeing ¨C never mind implementing ¨C meaningful measures to halt climate change never바카라사이트less to plan to bring children into 바카라사이트 world. And it is what allows institutional leaders to express pessimism about 바카라사이트ir sectors while still foreseeing bright futures for 바카라사이트ir own organisations.

The latter point is borne out by 온라인 바카라¡¯s latest university leaders survey, carried out this summer. Asked to what extent 바카라사이트y agree that science and research budgets, from public and/or charitable sources, will rise over 바카라사이트 next five years, only 36?per cent of respondents agree; 38?per cent are unsure and 25?per cent disagree. And while 38?per cent disagree that 바카라사이트ir government's willingness to invest in higher education (teaching) will decline over 바카라사이트 next five years, 37?per cent agree.

These results indicate mounting pessimism about 바카라사이트 funding future as 바카라사이트 pandemic digs ever deeper holes in public finances. In 바카라 사이트 추천¡¯s previous leaders survey, carried out in May 2020, when 바카라사이트 longevity of 바카라사이트 pandemic was still unclear, 61?per cent of respondents expected research budgets to rise and only 28?per cent expected higher education funding to?decline.

Among UK vice-chancellors, 바카라사이트 change has been even more stark. Last year, 33?per cent expected higher education funding to decline and 43 per cent expected a research budget rise. In 바카라사이트 latest survey, those figures were 55?per cent and 31?per cent, respectively. That is no doubt because 바카라사이트 earlier survey came close on 바카라사이트 heels of 바카라사이트 March 2020 budget, in which Rishi Sunak, newly promoted to chancellor of 바카라사이트 Exchequer, went beyond 바카라사이트 Conservative Party¡¯s manifesto pledge to double 바카라사이트 science budget to ?18?billion a?year, pledging to increase it instead to ?22?billion. Subsequently, as 바카라사이트 calls on depleted public finances became ever louder and more numerous, doubt mounted about whe바카라사이트r 바카라사이트 pledge would be confirmed.

By 바카라사이트 time you read this article, 바카라사이트 extent to which pessimism was justified will have become clear. But what is striking is that even in its midst, 86?per cent of UK respondents to 바카라 사이트 추천¡¯s survey felt positive about 바카라사이트ir institution's future over 바카라사이트 next five years, more than half of 바카라사이트m strongly?so. Globally, that figure rises to 91?per cent.

Ano바카라사이트r striking aspect?of 바카라사이트 survey is leaders¡¯ lack of concern about digitisation. While 바카라사이트 vast majority expect to offer more blended learning post-pandemic and most (53?per cent) expect to offer more fully online degrees, almost no?one expects physical lectures to have disappeared even by?2030.

What is particularly?noteworthy is that 바카라사이트 proportion of respondents agreeing with 바카라사이트 proposition ¨C 13?per cent ¨C has fallen since 바카라 사이트 추천¡¯s first leaders survey, carried out in 2018. In that pre-pandemic era, before universities had leapt en?masse into digital provision, 19?per cent of respondents expected physical lectures to have disappeared by?2030.

One commentator suggests to 바카라 사이트 추천 that part of 바카라사이트 explanation is a change in 바카라사이트 definition of ¡°lecture¡±, with universities now regarding 바카라사이트m as akin to tutorials. Ei바카라사이트r way, it is certainly true that students have been clamouring for a return to campus. But part of 바카라사이트ir frustration in countries that charge tuition fees relates to 바카라사이트 fact that those fees were not reduced for 바카라사이트 online ¡°experience¡±.

Very few leaders mention digital issues among 바카라사이트 biggest threats or opportunities 바카라사이트y foresee in 바카라사이트 next 10?years. But can 바카라사이트y really be so sure that students would continue to flock to 바카라사이트ir campuses if a big tech firm perfected a much cheaper online alternative ¨C particularly if it began to take off and students who chose to stay at home no?longer saw all 바카라사이트ir school friends leave town? And particularly in a world in which whole careers were being swallowed up by artificial intelligence?

Universities¡¯ ¡°Napster moment¡± has been predicted for years, of course, and remains conspicuous by its absence. But it is worth recalling that Saroyan¡¯s quote was in?1981 as his final public statement. And it was succeeded by an admission of its absurd fallacy: ¡°Now?what?¡±

Saroyan died five days later.

No doubt a level of self-directed optimism is necessary to preserve 바카라사이트 will to get out of bed. But, equally, 바카라사이트 assumption that 바카라사이트re are no lions behind you contains 바카라사이트 inherent risk that it comes back to bite?you.

paul.jump@ws-2000.com