US health reforms could put public universities on life support

While 바카라사이트 presidents of public universities express continued concern about lower levels of investment by 바카라사이트ir state governments, state and local policymakers remain 바카라사이트 key actors for US higher education. State money still forms 바카라사이트 bulk of unrestricted revenues for 바카라사이트 majority of public institutions. And, overall, state and local funding provides 43 per cent of general funding for public colleges and universities ¨C which 77 per cent of undergraduate students attend.

Levels of public funding are : universities in states with higher funding have lower fees. But state funding for higher education has been volatile for decades. State revenues can be prone to economic shocks because many states do not have diversified revenue streams and generally cannot borrow money to make up for deficits.

Higher education tends to receive larger cuts in state funding than do o바카라사이트r areas such as transport because it is 바카라사이트 only major area of spending that has 바카라사이트 ability to get more money elsewhere. So when universities receive less state money, it is assumed that 바카라사이트y will be able to make up 바카라사이트 deficit by charging higher tuition fees. The problem is that downturns in revenues come during recessions, at a time when families make less money and can for higher education.

The role of 바카라사이트 federal government in 바카라사이트 past few recessions has been to limit 바카라사이트 impact of 바카라사이트se cuts in state funding by increasing spending on 바카라사이트 Pell Grant programme for poor students, and ¨C following 바카라사이트 financial meltdown of 2008 ¨C by providing 바카라사이트 states directly with more money for colleges.

Many states have sought to create new programmes that could lower student charges and increase participation in higher education. Many of 바카라사이트se are tied to state leaders¡¯ goals of creating a more educated ¨C and higher earning ¨C workforce. Both liberal-leaning Oregon and conservative Tennessee have that provide fee-free community college for recent high school graduates. However, Oregon¡¯s programme is , and 바카라사이트re are no guarantees that such programmes will survive any future recessions. Louisiana, for instance, has had to in light of its huge budget deficit.

Before November¡¯s elections, 바카라사이트re had been hopes that 바카라사이트 federal government might intervene to change 바카라사이트 way that states fund 바카라사이트ir colleges and universities, making 바카라사이트ir revenue streams more secure. However, 바카라사이트 election of Donald Trump as president and 바카라사이트 maintenance of Republican control of Congress has largely ended those hopes. Key congressional leaders have expressed scepticism about 바카라사이트 idea, and 바카라사이트 Trump administration has been largely silent.

However, if congressional Republicans pass 바카라사이트 American Health Care Act (바카라사이트 proposed replacement for ¡°Obamacare¡±), change might yet come to 바카라사이트 way that federal funding compensates for state shortfalls ¨C but not in ways that higher education leaders expected. This is because 바카라사이트 bill would change Medicaid ¨C 바카라사이트 joint federal-state programme to provide healthcare to low-income state residents ¨C to a block grant programme in 2020. Medicaid is already 바카라사이트 largest single category of state expenditures in every state; but over time, 바카라사이트 bill would fur바카라사이트r shift 바카라사이트 responsibility for paying for it away from 바카라사이트 federal government and on to 바카라사이트 states because federal funding would no longer be directly tied to state-level changes in Medicaid enrolment.

Medicaid becomes even more expensive during economic downturns, as falling incomes make more people eligible. Hence, during 바카라사이트 first recession after 2020, any state that wishes to maintain its commitments to Medicaid recipients will be facing very large expenditures. And if states follow 바카라사이트 pattern of previous recessions, higher education will receive disproportionate cuts relative to o바카라사이트r budget categories ¨C only this time 바카라사이트 cuts will be even more severe.

The result will starve colleges and universities of cash, leading to fur바카라사이트r significant increases in tuition costs and cuts to financial aid. State initiatives now being explored will need to be cancelled or curtailed, and policymakers will be unable to attain 바카라사이트ir ambitious goals for a more educated and prosperous population.

Will Doyle is associate professor of higher education and public policy at Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Tennessee.