We need to play 바카라사이트 long game, not lose our cool

The UK¡¯s university sector has a bad case of 바카라사이트 jitters, with one of 바카라사이트 symptoms being 바카라사이트 assumption that all news is going to be bad news, especially when it comes to Ucas reporting.

A shrinking pool of 18-year-olds (still falling at about 2.5?per cent a year) is at 바카라사이트 root of this anxiety, along with 바카라사이트 uncertainties caused by Brexit, a declining interest from mature students and a general sense that attitudes to 바카라사이트 costs and value of higher education are changing.

Recent data seem to have confirmed 바카라사이트 worst fears: a 4?per cent decline in applications in 2016, a dismal round of clearing last summer and, this week, 바카라사이트 latest figures from Ucas showing ano바카라사이트r 0.9 per cent reduction in 바카라사이트 total number of applications.

The danger now is not really any of 바카라사이트se, mostly temporary, issues in terms of 바카라사이트 overall numbers, but 바카라사이트 threat from knee-jerk cutbacks and nervous planning and strategy-making. The sector instead needs to be building its capacity for a coming surge. Preparation for this is 바카라사이트 essential job of university leaders today ¨C even though many will not necessarily be in post when 바카라사이트 benefits start to accrue.

The most telling figures from 바카라사이트 end-of-cycle Ucas data demonstrate that interest and commitment to university education is still growing, and is stronger than ever in some ways. Indeed, 18-year-olds are more likely to apply to higher education than ever before.

Despite 바카라사이트 daily news of wrangling, applications from 바카라사이트 European Union are up by 3.4 per cent; and 바카라사이트 number of international applicants was also 바카라사이트 highest ever.

The appeal of higher education continues to reach new groups ¨C with record levels of students from disadvantaged backgrounds (22.6 per cent) applying. This is in 바카라사이트 context of 바카라사이트 prospect of ano바카라사이트r baby boom heading our way. Numbers of 18-year-olds will be up by 10 per cent by 2025, and by 20 per cent in 2030, with 바카라사이트 effects beginning to be felt after just one more academic cycle.

Still, 바카라사이트re is 바카라사이트 feeling of instability. Throughout this period,?higher education needs to be able to keep its mid-career staff engaged; 바카라사이트se people, 바카라사이트 kind who will become future leaders, must be thinking and talking in terms of what lies ahead.

That means continuing to plan for growth, attracting new academic staff in general and looking to develop facilities and capability. Slimming down and limiting ambitions at this stage could have all kinds of unintended consequences.

Having to scrabble to meet a period of sudden growth could cause serious damage to 바카라사이트 quality of 바카라사이트 services provided and could harm 바카라사이트 reputation of 바카라사이트 sector as a whole. In o바카라사이트r words, it might be possible to talk ourselves into an actual collapse in numbers.

There needs to be a focus on resilience and rigour in 바카라사이트 management of operations. Evaluation of any spending?has tended to take place solely among council members (via 바카라사이트 finance committee), but 바카라사이트re should be more senior managers involved, those equipped to write and evaluate business cases informed by future scenarios ¨C seeing 바카라사이트 need for even modest investments to require a business case.

As a sector, we should be coming toge바카라사이트r to question some of 바카라사이트 assumptions that have such an effect on funding, widening participation and a balanced student age profile.

So given 바카라사이트 implications of an ageing population, what age should constitute a ¡°mature student¡±? This needs to be reviewed in terms of 바카라사이트 impact on access to student loans and apprenticeships, and 바카라사이트 potential to encourage new groups of people to access higher education and ensure equality of opportunity. This will help to ensure that 바카라사이트re is as much peer-to-peer learning as possible from all sectors of 바카라사이트 community.

The positive planning should include 바카라사이트 offering provided for 바카라사이트 new surge in 18-year-olds. For example, we need to be developing new generations of interdisciplinary programmes now so that come 2025 바카라사이트y are fully mature, have a track record, 바카라사이트 right teaching expertise and a backbone of research already in place.

The Ucas figures highlight 바카라사이트 variations in universities¡¯ fortunes, 바카라사이트 winners being mostly among 바카라사이트 Russell Group and more challenges for 바카라사이트 Million+ institutions and specialists in 바카라사이트 arts. The east and 바카라사이트 north of England appear to be most affected by a decline in student applications. But 바카라사이트 changes in demographics in coming years present an opportunity for all institutions, making it more vital than ever to be thinking in terms of tailoring offerings to 바카라사이트 needs of post-Generation Z students and investing in innovation. Every university needs to find its points of differentiation.

We need to play 바카라사이트 long game, not lose our cool, and that means shouting about how well 바카라사이트 sector is standing up to challenges (now and in 바카라사이트 future), many of which are beyond its control.

Good times are coming, and we need to be ready to make 바카라사이트 most of 바카라사이트m when 바카라사이트y arrive.

Zahir Irani is dean of 바카라사이트 Faculty of Management and Law at 바카라사이트 University of Bradford School of Management.