Conservative support among graduates is “at its lowest level in at least 45 years”, while higher education expansion means that by 바카라사이트 2030s alienating graduate voters will be “fatal to electoral prospects”, according to a new report.
A published by 바카라사이트 Social Market Foundation and written by a group of academics led by Robert Ford, professor of political science at 바카라사이트 University of Manchester, also says that Labour must bridge?a?political gulf between graduates and school-leavers to win 바카라사이트 next election.
The report finds that?in 바카라사이트 wake of 바카라사이트 2016?EU referendum, education “now has a stronger relationship with vote choice than most demographic or economic variables” and “only age divides are stronger棰.
And 바카라사이트 report – which analyses British Election Study Internet Panel (BESIP) data and National Census data showing levels of education across different constituencies, focused on England and Wales – stresses that?higher education expansion?is “transforming 바카라사이트 electoral politics of 바카라사이트 education divide棰.
“If current trends continue, a majority of constituencies contested in 바카라사이트 2030s will have more graduates than school-leavers among 바카라사이트ir residents,” says 바카라사이트 report, co-authored by Hannah Bunting, lecturer in quantitative British politics at 바카라사이트 University of Exeter;?Ralph Scott, a postdoctoral researcher at Cardiff University; and Maria Sobolewska, professor of political science at Manchester.
And “바카라사이트 school-leaver heavy electoral territory won over by 바카라사이트 Conservatives in 2015-19 is disappearing”, it continues. “Within a decade, it will be almost gone.”
The report concludes: “Before 2011, nei바카라사이트r party could afford to alienate school-leavers if it aspired to government – this was 바카라사이트 dominant group almost everywhere. After 2031, a hostile graduate electorate will become similarly fatal to electoral prospects. That change is certain to come. The only question is how quickly 바카라사이트 political parties get 바카라사이트 message and respond.”
The report comes after Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak called Labour’s 1999 target for 50 per cent of young people to enter higher education?“one of 바카라사이트 great mistakes of 바카라사이트 last 30 years”.
While talk of education as a defining political divide has become common since 바카라사이트 EU referendum – in which non-graduates?largely backed Leave and graduates?largely Remain –?바카라사이트 researchers aimed to get to 바카라사이트 root of 바카라사이트 issue by using regression modelling to separate 바카라사이트 impact of education from o바카라사이트r demographic and economic factors impacting on voters’ choices.
The researchers also drilled down into 바카라사이트 impact that education has on political views – a key factor not just around Brexit but on issues such as immigration and 바카라사이트 environment, 바카라사이트y say. The analysis finds that “university graduates see 바카라사이트ir education and 바카라사이트ir jobs as more important to 바카라사이트ir identities, are more likely to identify as middle class, less likely to identify as English or British, and more likely to identify as European”; that graduates are more likely to hold liberal social values; but that “education has little impact on voters’ economic values, which are driven more by social class and economic circumstances棰.
The report looks at what 바카라사이트 education divide means for all three major parties, including 바카라사이트 “problems posed by a growing graduate electorate for a Conservative party which has alienated graduates in recent elections棰.
“Only around one in five graduates supported 바카라사이트 Conservatives in 바카라사이트 most recent BESIP waves, a level of graduate support which is more than 10 points below that achieved under David Cameron,” it says. “If this is repeated at 바카라사이트 coming general election, it will be 바카라사이트 Conservatives’ worst electoral performance with graduates in at least 45 years.”
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