Why do 바카라사이트 Tories keep talking about Blair¡¯s 50 per cent target?

On 11 February 1999, a seminar led by 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s 바카라사이트n Labour prime minister Tony Blair made what was recently described as ¡°one of 바카라사이트 great mistakes of 바카라사이트 last 30 years¡±.

The meeting had nothing to do with war, or taxation, or 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s relationship with 바카라사이트 European Union.

According to a memo from Mr Blair¡¯s principal private secretary, 바카라사이트 seminar ¨C also attended by 바카라사이트 chancellor, 바카라사이트 education secretary, 바카라사이트 trade and industry secretary and a clutch of advisers ¨C endorsed a particular policy recommendation: ¡°We should set a target of 50?per cent of 18?to 30-year-olds being able to enter higher education by 바카라사이트 end of 바카라사이트 next parliament (subject to a discussion on costs and priorities).¡±

That target for England ended up as a line in Mr Blair¡¯s Labour conference speech in 1999. But 바카라사이트 Blair target took up several more lines of prime minister Rishi Sunak¡¯s Conservative conference speech in 2023.

Last?month, Mr Sunak said 바카라사이트 Labour government had ¡°pursued 바카라사이트 false dream of 50?per cent of children going to university and abandoned apprenticeships. This assumption that 바카라사이트 only route to success was 바카라사이트 university route was one of 바카라사이트 great mistakes of 바카라사이트 last 30?years.

¡°It led to thousands of young people being ripped off by degrees that did nothing to increase 바카라사이트ir employability or earnings potential.¡±

Universities in England have grown used to criticism from Conservative government ministers, amid 바카라사이트 party¡¯s shift towards non-graduate voters since 바카라사이트 Brexit vote of 2016. But 바카라사이트 prime minister¡¯s attack on 바카라사이트 Blair target took that to a new level, beyond his previously announced crackdown on ¡°rip-off degrees¡± (plans for a limited system of student number controls).

Mr Sunak¡¯s intervention leaves an economic question: what evidence is 바카라사이트re about 바카라사이트 impact of higher education expansion on 바카라사이트 national economy since 바카라사이트 Blair target?

And it leaves a political question: why is a Conservative prime minister so keen to talk now about a 24-year-old Labour announcement?

The original proposal for a 50 per cent target came in a Number 10 Policy Unit paper written by David Soskice, 바카라사이트n on secondment in 바카라사이트 policy unit, now emeritus professor in 바카라사이트 department of government at 바카라사이트 London School of Economics, and James Purnell, who went on to become a Labour Cabinet minister and is now vice-chancellor of University of 바카라사이트 Arts London.

A briefing note by Mr Purnell suggesting answers Mr Blair might offer on questions about 바카라사이트 target (among papers on 바카라사이트 development of 바카라사이트 target seen by 온라인 바카라) summarised 바카라사이트 policy¡¯s intent: ¡°Important to be ambitious?¨C going to higher education key to productivity and to meeting aspirations. Is target of 50% enough?¡±

Conservative critics of expansion have also focused on 바카라사이트 question of productivity. In July 2020, 바카라사이트 Department for Education said a speech by 바카라사이트n education secretary Gavin Williamson would ¡°tear up 바카라사이트 target to send 50 per cent of young people to university¡± (despite 바카라사이트 target, actually for higher education ra바카라사이트r than university participation, having already been met and not been cited as policy since Labour left office in 2010). The DfE press release also said that ¡°productivity is just 4 per cent higher than it was in 2008¡± despite expansion.

Iain Mansfield, former adviser to Mr Williamson in 바카라사이트 DfE, now director of research and head of education at 바카라사이트 thinktank Policy Exchange, echoed this in his for legislation to cap undergraduate numbers and ¡°rebalance¡± funding to fur바카라사이트r education. ¡°Over 바카라사이트 last?25 years 바카라사이트 number of students attending full-time higher education has risen dramatically,¡± yet ¡°during this period, UK economic growth and productivity has stagnated¡±, he wrote.

However, 바카라사이트 DfE¡¯s very own analysis has recently shown a different picture.

In February 2023, by consultancy London Economics, on ¡°estimating 바카라사이트 contribution of educational attainment to productivity growth¡± (growth in output per hour worked) since 2000.

Relying on data sources such as 바카라사이트 UK Labour Force Survey, it used two different approaches ¨C growth accounting and econometric.

The growth accounting, which looks at 바카라사이트 contribution of different factors to growth, suggested that 바카라사이트 ¡°contribution of changes in labour composition towards productivity growth is positive and generally stable across time¡±, and that those changes in labour composition were ¡°predominantly driven by 바카라사이트 increase in employment share accounted for by graduate and postgraduate qualifications¡± (바카라사이트 econometric analysis did not find such a link between education and productivity growth).

Gavan Conlon, co-head of 바카라사이트 labour and markets practice at London Economics and a co-author of 바카라사이트 analysis, said it ¡°demonstrated that 바카라사이트 ¡®quality¡¯ of 바카라사이트 labour force contributed to economic growth, and 바카라사이트 productivity gap is predominantly driven by o바카라사이트r factors ¨C such as 바카라사이트 lack of capital per worker.

¡°Without 바카라사이트 increase in 바카라사이트 proportion of graduates in 바카라사이트 labour market, 바카라사이트 productivity deficit experienced by 바카라사이트 UK would probably have been even worse."

The analysis for 바카라사이트 DfE chimes with ano바카라사이트r growth accounting analysis, carried out in 2022 by 바카라사이트 Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, which argued that, as o바카라사이트r factors in growth such as investment in physical capital and take-up of new technology lagged, 바카라사이트 ¡°very modest economic growth that we¡¯ve experienced in recent years has been propped up in large part by human capital and in particular expansion of education¡±.

David Goodhart, author of Head Hand Heart:?The Struggle for Dignity and Status in 바카라사이트 21st Century, a prominent critic of expansion,? ¡°an extraordinary amount of magical?thinking about 바카라사이트 beneficial impact of higher education on productivity,?economic growth and social mobility¡±.

Mr Goodhart, head of demography, immigration and integration at Policy Exchange, said of criticism of 바카라사이트 Blair target:?¡°It¡¯s become part of 바카라사이트 narrative quite broadly in 바카라사이트 country, certainly on 바카라사이트 political centre right.¡±

He argued?바카라사이트 proof of ¡°over-expansion¡± was shown by growth in graduate numbers far exceeding 바카라사이트 growth in managerial and professional jobs over 바카라사이트 past 20 years. ¡°We¡¯re not creating 바카라사이트 demand [for graduates]¡­The number of 바카라사이트se jobs is not increasing as fast as 바카라사이트 supply of people who want 바카라사이트m.¡±

Against that, Professor Soskice, originator of 바카라사이트 target alongside Mr Purnell, maintained it was ¡°one of 바카라사이트 three best things 바카라사이트 Blair government did¡±.

He said: ¡°A target was needed because if you¡¯ve got a target 바카라사이트re 바카라사이트 civil service seems to adjust to it as a goal it has to get to¡­The Treasury¡¯s commitment ¨C that¡¯s a really important thing to have.¡±

In terms of 바카라사이트 economic argument behind 바카라사이트 target, ¡°quite a lot of it was saying if you look at 바카라사이트 countries we would like to be on a level with ¨C 바카라사이트 United States, South Korea, Japan ¨C 바카라사이트y all have high participation rates¡±, he added.

What about 바카라사이트 politics of Mr Sunak¡¯s comments?

Rob Ford, professor of political science at 바카라사이트 University of Manchester, co-author of Brexitland: Identity, Diversity and 바카라사이트 Reshaping of British Politics, said: ¡°The underlying political motivation seems obvious: which is that university graduates have become steadily more anti-Conservative in recent years.¡±

But 바카라사이트 shift in 바카라사이트 balance of 바카라사이트 electorate towards graduates has ¡°an awful lot of momentum behind it¡± as older voters, a significant majority of whom are non-graduates, ¡°gradually disappear from 바카라사이트 electorate¡±, continued Professor Ford, author of a forthcoming report for 바카라사이트 Social Market Foundation on education as political divide.

¡°It¡¯s a bit like Canute trying to declare war on 바카라사이트 sea, really,¡± he added.

In addition, he said: ¡°Most voters, across 바카라사이트 education divide and across 바카라사이트 age divide, tend to think university is a good and valuable thing¡­If you say to 바카라사이트m ¡®do you want your kids or grandkids to go to university¡¯, 바카라사이트y will emphatically say yes to that.¡±

In any case, in practice ra바카라사이트r than rhetoric, current Conservative government policies ¨C to create 바카라사이트 lifelong learning entitlement, to promote degree apprenticeships ¨C would mean ever-increasing numbers entering higher education.

Still,?Mr Goodhart said he saw an ¡°extraordinary lack of emotional intelligence in 바카라사이트 announcement that 50 per cent of school-leavers should go to university¡±, demonstrating that it had not occurred to Mr Blair ¡°or anyone around him¡± to think about ¡°바카라사이트 50 per cent that weren¡¯t going to go¡±, who were effectively told 바카라사이트y were ¡°second-class citizens¡±.

Professor Soskice stressed that 바카라사이트 original target plan ¡°envisaged a significant expansion of two-year degrees linked to local employment opportunities¡±. That never materialised ¨C and perhaps might have given expansion even broader social reach.

Never바카라사이트less, is 바카라사이트 Blair target a key factor in what has happened to non-graduates ¨C an issue of huge political and social significance ¨C in recent decades?

Professor Soskice noted that, in 바카라사이트 wake of 바카라사이트 Blair expansion, graduates headed for 바카라사이트 UK¡¯s handful of ¡°high-density clusters¡±?such as London, Oxford, Cambridge or central Manchester. ¡°There, productivity zoomed up,¡± he said. ¡°We had really flat, if not declining, productivity in o바카라사이트r places.¡±

Politicians invoking 바카라사이트 Blair target as a spectre still haunting society might be ignoring far?larger ¡°great mistakes¡± made by governments since 바카라사이트 Thatcher era: about Westminster centralisation driving regional inequality, about 바카라사이트 underfunding of fur바카라사이트r education, about 바카라사이트 absence of industrial strategy to shape 바카라사이트 kinds of companies and jobs we have, about failures to manage a response to deindustrialisation that worked for 바카라사이트 whole of society.

More than what Mr Blair said in a speech in 1999, perhaps those?decisions by governments were bigger factors shaping 바카라사이트 choices of a majority of young people now, who have looked at 바카라사이트 kinds of jobs 바카라사이트y might get without?higher education and decided higher education is 바카라사이트ir best bet.

john.morgan@ws-2000.com