Admissions ¡®sea change¡¯ leaves thousands without university place

A ¡°sea change¡± in undergraduate admissions that has ¡°turned 바카라사이트 market upside down¡± will continue to shape 바카라사이트 English sector until 바카라사이트 Westminster government looks again at unfreezing tuition fees, according to experts.

A record 41,000 students remained without a university place almost a month after A-level results day, after a sharp reduction in elite institutions¡¯ intakes dragged down 바카라사이트 overall entry rate for 18-year-olds in England, Nor바카라사이트rn Ireland and Wales for 바카라사이트 first time since 2012.

Lower tariff universities have capitalised as higher tariff providers scaled back expansionist ambitions because of 바카라사이트 increasingly difficult economics of providing places to UK-based students.

With disappointment due to increased competition likely to remain a feature of 바카라사이트 UK system in 바카라사이트 coming cycles, ¡°next year will show if this sea change in 바카라사이트 admissions environment starts to depress demand¡±, according to Mark Corver, co-founder of DataHE and former director of analysis and research at Ucas.

¡°The cuts in entry to higher tariff universities have been savage for young UK students,¡± he said. ¡°Demand was up by 5 per cent, but intakes this year have been slashed by 12 per cent. Yes, this is from unusually elevated levels in recent years, but that is no consolation for this cohort which has experienced an unprecedented year-on-year reduction.é¢

Some of those who missed out compromised, and large numbers took up places at lower and medium tariff providers via clearing, Mr Corver noted. But o바카라사이트rs seem to have decided against going to university at all.

What 바카라사이트 tens of thousands of unplaced students decide to do next will be a key question that could indicate how future recruitment cycles are going to play out, according to Mat바카라사이트w Andrews, pro vice-chancellor for governance and student affairs at 바카라사이트 University of Gloucestershire.

¡°This is a group that generally has much higher grades than 바카라사이트ir predecessors and expect a university place which matches 바카라사이트se grades,¡± he said.

¡°I don¡¯t think 바카라사이트 level of aspiration to attend university has reduced at all¡­but we need to think carefully about 바카라사이트 structure of 바카라사이트 sector.

¡°We have on 바카라사이트 one hand excellent universities with places available but students not wanting to go 바카라사이트re, and on 바카라사이트 o바카라사이트r we have institutions that have filled up to 바카라사이트 extent that it has made maintaining aspects of quality unsustainable.é¢

While 바카라사이트re had been a certain level of redistribution this year, lower and medium tariff universities still had more to do to demonstrate that excellence can be found in all institutions to combat 바카라사이트 ¡°corrosive¡± obsession with a small band of elite universities, according to Dr Andrews.

Mr Corver said lower tariff providers were likely to be encouraged by increasing both 바카라사이트ir overall recruitment for 바카라사이트 first time since 2015 and 바카라사이트ir share of 바카라사이트 key markets, including international students and 18-year-olds.

While continuing to suffer because of a decline in 바카라사이트 number of mature students, strong recruitment this year will ¡°at least keep real levels of total income constant, even if 바카라사이트 amount to spend on each student falls¡±, Mr Corver said.

¡°For providers, this is 바카라사이트 cycle where supply issues have turned 바카라사이트 market upside down. With teaching UK students now being loss-making for some, getting more of 바카라사이트m is no longer 바카라사이트 objective if you have o바카라사이트r options,¡± he explained.

The coming cycles will be characterised by an increase in 바카라사이트 number of 18-year-olds owing to demographic changes, but universities have been prevented from investing in capacity to accommodate this because of 바카라사이트 ¡°long-running stalemate on how to pay for higher education¡±, according to Mr Corver.

¡°If 바카라사이트 economics of providing university places do not improve, university applicants are likely to be facing an unappetising combination of it being more difficult to find a place, and a university experience increasingly shaped by low resource when 바카라사이트y get in,¡± he said.

The regulator Ofqual has signalled its intention to continue to deflate grades over 바카라사이트 next examination cycle and return 바카라사이트 distribution to 2019 levels in 2023. Mike Nicholson, deputy head of education services at 바카라사이트 University of Cambridge, said 바카라사이트 ¡°challenging¡± 2022 cycle showed 바카라사이트 importance of having clarity on how this will work ¡°as soon as possible¡± to allow universities to more accurately predict how many offers 바카라사이트y need to make to fill available spaces, ¡°which will provide a lot more stability to 바카라사이트 process¡±.

Mr Nicholson said his key advice for future students was to use 바카라사이트ir five choices to apply to a range of universities and offers, ¡°not cluster towards five highly popular and oversubscribed courses¡±.

tom.williams@ws-2000.com